The Nov. 4, 2008, election is not only a bellwether for the country's "red to blue" political shift, but it also signals a significant swing in the federal government's role in the relationship between U.S. business and its employees. For over 20 years, (including to some extent even during the Clinton administration), the emphasis of the federal government has been to extricate itself out of the relationship between U.S. business and its employees and let the states take over a more active role. Some significant "conservative" Supreme Court decisions also impacted federal and state labor laws, further diminishing the impact of these laws on the business front.
That is certain to change in 2009 when Barack Obama takes office. The legislative and executive branches will both be under Democratic control, and it is only a matter of time before the Supreme Court will lean more toward the left of center as new appointments of justices are made by the new administration and ratified by the Congress. The impact will be felt in the following areas:
There will be an expansion of the federal workforce in employment law enforcement agencies, such as the OFCCP, EEOC and the NLRB. This expansion will be "paid for" by punitive fines collected by these agencies for violations of federal employment laws by businesses, rather than taxes. Congress will pass new laws and regulations and mandates in the areas of health care benefits, pension plans. Fines on employers will become more prevalent as enforcement increases of those regulations.
Significant concessions to organized labor, including the card signing bill which forces collective bargaining without secret elections on businesses in this country will revive the union movement and increase labor organizing, especially among Hispanics, who are becoming more empowered. Trial lawyers will take advantage of the new environment to file more lawsuits against businesses based on the new legislation and regulations.
Even if President Obama tries to be a pragmatist and hold a rein on the liberal wing of the party in its regulatory zeal, the new bureaucracy will take on a life of its own and impact business. It will increase the costs of "doing business" in this country. Any organization with employees will have to "up their game" when it comes to paying attention to employment laws and regulations. The chances of getting sued or charged by a regulatory agency will increase dramatically over the next four years. That is good news for the legal profession.
These shifts are not necessarily all bad for our society, since workers rights and the labor movement have taken a "beating" in a very hostile political environment in the last eight years. Hopefully, the pendulum of government intervention will swing to the middle, instead of too far left this time. Our workers have been losing their standard of living and at least these trends will slow the shrinking of our middle class. It is a different world now than the 60's and 70's when the Left "ran the country" and the world is much more integrated economically. That alone may limit what changes are implemented as our leaders face the new reality of a damaged economy and the fact that business in the U.S. has become almost non competitive internationally as a manufacturer of hard goods products. Our government can no longer legislate in a vacuum as it has become a very small world and there are many consequences we cannot predict to every action it takes affecting the business markets. The new administration will need to be very careful as it shifts the priorities of government. Dan Curtin, SPHR, MAOM is a Principal of Curtin Associates, a human resource consulting firm, located in Los Angeles, CA.
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